Commercial due diligence of Dunkerque LNG terminal in France

Context & Objectives

Emerton advised Fluxys on the acquisition of a stake of the Dunkirk Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminal located in Northern France and serving both the French and the Belgian gas markets.

Outcome

The subscription and utilization scenarios of Dunkerque LNG terminal are deductedfrom the realized analyses.

This enabled Fluxys to make its decision and successfully acquire an additional stake in the LNG terminal.

Our approach

‍Step 1: Analysis the total gas future import needs in the EU (piped gas + LNG)

Analysis of the EU gas demand scenarios and assessment the uncertainties and the realization conditions of each scenario
Analysis of the EU domestic gas production scenarios
Deriving the total gas import needs in EU

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Step 2: Identification of the LNG share in the European gas future imports

Analysis of the potential of the various piped gas sources serving the EU market
Analysis of the various LNG sources and projects: operational, under-construction, probable an possible

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Step 3: Analysis of NWE vs. European LNG terminals attractiveness and utilization rates

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Step 4: Assessment of Dunkerque LNG terminal relative attractiveness among NWE LNG terminals

Assessment of key attractiveness factors for LNG terminals
Analysis of each NWE LNG terminal based on selected criteria
NWE terminals attractiveness ranking

Our experts

Sebastien Plessis

Managing Partner

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