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September 17th, 2025 - Emerton performed the Commercial and Strategic Vendor Due Diligence of Dunkerque LNG terminal

Aviation is one of the hardest sectors to decarbonize:

- Global air traffic is projected to double by 2050, which will offset any CO2 emission reductions gained from technological improvement (ex: engine efficiency) or operational levers

- Alternative fuel options, such as electric and hydrogen, are highly limited due to weight constraints

Consequently, SAF emerges as the main option to decarbonize aviation. While SAF consumption is gaining traction due to airline commitments and regulations (e.g., ReFuelEU Aviation, in force in Europe since January 2025), its share remains minor (e.g., 1.25% for Air France-KLM), and scaling up presents significant challenges:

- Developing mature technologies to achieve production costs that result in a viable economic equation: current production costs are 2 to 5 times that of fossil jet fuel

- Ensuring feedstock availability to avoid reliance on imports from Asia: In Europe most SAF is currently produced via the HEFA process (Hydrotreated Esters and Fatty Acid), utilizing UCO (Used Cooking Oil), which is mostly imported from Asia.

Developing SAF production capacities will require massive investment.

The groundwork to catalyze SAF production investment is in place: commitments to net-zero emissions by 2050, SAF mandates in several countries and long-term offtake contracts between airlines and SAF suppliers.

However the coming five years will be crucial to turn early initiatives into operational projects, to mature the technology, reduce the production costs and develop a local feedstock supply chain.  This will allow the shift towards SAF to become a national strategic advantage rather than relying on imported used oil from Asia.